In September, the cotton industry entered the peak season. Because September is not only the traditional peak season for downstream textile enterprises, but also the season for the large-scale listing of Xinjiang cotton. However, the recent cotton market performance is contrary to the "peak season", Zheng cotton shocked down, the fundamentals are also no good. Is the fall in cotton prices a foregone conclusion? Is there a turning point in the cotton market?

In this regard, Zhuo Chuang information analyst Gao Feitang believes that overall, the cotton industry is a good negative factor, and the short-term market is neutral, and the long-term market is strong.

In terms of favorable factors, Gao Feitang pointed out that in the domestic market, domestic cotton will have a demand gap of more than 1 million tons in the new year. After the end of the national reserve cotton rotation, the inventory is expected to be low to 3 million tons. The available stock is lower, but as a national reserve material, it is also an important weight for the state to regulate cotton prices in the market. The probability of complete rotation of all stocks in the next year is small. In the international, 2018/19 Australian drought caused a significant reduction in cotton planting area, yield reduction or about 40%, Indian cotton affected by weather and pests, production will also fluctuate, global demand is growing steadily, global cotton in 2018/19 Supply is tight. This is good for the long-term market of cotton.

In terms of negative factors, the weather speculation on the reduction of cotton production in Xinjiang in May this year has been falsified with the recent investigation of many manufacturers in the Xinjiang cotton area. The mentality of fund speculators has changed, and all the good news in the current market is inevitable. . According to the current statistics of Zhuochuang Information, it is estimated that Xinjiang's new season cotton area will increase by about 6%, and the production estimate will increase to nearly 6 million tons. Recently, the state-owned cotton exporter has been postponed, and the downstream textile enterprises have a loose mentality. The news that the 800,000-ton sliding quota will be issued will also slow down the procurement pace. At present, the spot Xinjiang cotton purchase and sales are light, and Zheng cotton warehouse receipts are high on cotton prices. A certain negative impact.

In addition, the new cotton in Xinjiang is on the verge of opening, and the high expectations of the price of this year have also increased the pressure on the ginning enterprises. At present, the psychological price of the ginning enterprises is low, but in order to complete the processing plan, they have to open the scale, regardless of the high price or low. The acquisition of the price has made the ginning enterprises difficult. The short-term market for cotton has formed a bearish interest.

Another thing that cannot be ignored is that the tight Sino-US trade relations and the mutual tariffs between the two sides will have far-reaching effects on the import of US cotton and the export of Chinese textile and apparel products.

Gao Feitang reminded that in the absence of strong supply and demand transformation support, there is still a factor that cannot be ignored - market sentiment, or the key factors of the cotton market. Whether rising or falling, when market sentiment forms a certain "resonance", there is enough power to drive in a consistent atmosphere. The recent market sentiment is hesitant and may be an important factor in the shock of cotton prices. Therefore, when there is no clear market news, you may wish to wait and see the market trend.

Xinjiang: cotton enterprises continue to open scales

Recently, cotton purchasing companies in various regions of Xinjiang have successively opened scales. The seed cotton currently purchased is mostly used for processing cotton wool, and it is a small amount of hand-picked cotton purchased from the land. The purchase amount is small, and the price is 7.3-7.7 yuan/kg (40 clothes, water). Within 13%).

Most manufacturers hold the test and test rolling attitude, the price of open scale is also higher than previous years, basically maintained at 7.3-7.5 yuan / kg (40% clothing points), the cost of converting lint is generally 17,000 yuan / ton, 43-45% clothing points The purchase price of seed cotton is as high as 7.75 yuan / kg.

The North Xinjiang ginning factory has also begun to acquire cotton!

At present, the starting ginning factory of Kuitun in northern Xinjiang has been scaled off. According to the staff of the factory, the hand picking cotton of the factory has been opened for one week. The purchase price is based on the cotton grade: if the clothing is 40, the horse value is 4.2 or more, generally 7.4 yuan - 7.5 yuan / kg. The purchase price of these days is 7.4 yuan -7.7 yuan. According to the price, the quality of cotton this year is still very good. As of today, the factory has acquired 1,000 tons of seed cotton.

Recently, some ginning factories in Bachu, Aksu, Kashgar, and Korla in southern Xinjiang opened up the scale to purchase seed cotton, and the purchase price was high, which caused market concern. As of September 10, the purchase price of seed cotton in Bachu region was 7.3-7.4 yuan/kg (40% for clothing and 12% for regain), and the cost of 3128 grade lint was 16,845 yuan/ton. The cost of new cotton is high, and many ginning factories say they can't afford it. The individual ginning factory in Aksu region opened the scale to purchase seed cotton. The purchase price reached 7.5 yuan/kg (40% for clothing and 13% for regain), which was 0.3 yuan/kg, and the conversion cost was generally 17,000 yuan/ton and above. Korla has very few manufacturers, and the price is 7.2-7.3 yuan / kg. From the perspective of Xinjiang's acquisition, the quality of new cotton this year is good, the cotton farmers are highly valued, and the grabbing situation still exists. However, the current supply of cotton in the market is relatively sufficient. The price of newly processed lint is above 17,000 yuan/ton, and the price is high, which may cause sales pressure on enterprises.

It is understood that most of the cotton enterprises in northern Xinjiang are only in the sporadic scale, the trial and trial rolling stage, the average seed cotton purchase price is about 7.2 yuan / kg (40% clothing points), because the cotton areas in northern Xinjiang have not been harvested in large areas, As a result, the amount of acquisition is limited.

Recently, all factories are still in the inspection stage. The scale opening is expected to be around September 20. Therefore, it may be late to open the scale. At present, some cotton enterprises are still carrying out firefighting, boiler, dust removal and other equipment renovation work. Normal acquisition processing.

Other enterprises actively raised funds for acquisition through various channels. Some enterprises that did not manage well in the previous year have difficulty starting funds this year. Several warehouses around Kuitun still have 100,000 tons of lint cotton.